It’s been 13 years but I vividly remember the soundless and empty streets of snowy Oshkosh that night as I was walking back to the campus.  If only I had returned to the States a year earlier I would have witnessed the triumphant Packers’ victory over the Patriots, but I’m relegated only to watching that game’s highlights on nfl.com.

Tonight I have an opportunity to watch my Packers battle the Steelers and really hope that the trophy will be brought back to the Titletown. The only minor detail is that it will be close to 4am at kickoff time here in Yerevan. But there’s no way I’m going to miss this game. Whether it’s on the Internet or via Skype (my friends promised me to skype from the States and put the computer in front of their TVs if I don’t catch a live feed over the internet) I’m watching the game. I don’t care that I have to be at work within 2 hours after the game will finish, I’m watching this game. I’m watching the game from my quiet apartment in Yerevan where I can’t really cheer, where there’s nobody to have a tailgate party with, where people know what football is (and it’s not played with a rugby like ball) and hope to greet the dawn, while observing the soundless and empty streets of snowy Yerevan where nobody knows that my Packers may have just won.

While historically September is a bad month for equities and risk assets, the weekly candles on most risk-related currencies are very bullish. Therefore, next week I expect continuation of this momentum although at a slightly slower pace. I would prefer buying dips in AUD, CAD, and NZD throughout the week, but given my busy work schedule trading won’t be a priority for the next couple of weeks.

It’s been a quite difficult market for me to navigate during the past three weeks. Trade appears to be choppy in most USD crosses.

My results for July are still positive although not as great as they were prior to the GBP/USD debacle.

Next week I still see no high risk/reward trades. I might try buying USD/CHF around 1.0460 if the market decides to trade at those levels.

Trading environment was quite difficult. After a bullish engulfing pattern by commodity currencies in the previous week they weren’t able to put together a decent follow through. The loonie put in an especially weak performance, while the kiwi had 2*ATR day down on Friday, which wiped out all of the week’s gains.

The Euro and cable did substantially better, but cable put in a bearish engulfing candle on Friday, so it’s bullish prospects got somewhat diminished. The euro on the other hand charged ahead briefly breaking 1.30 level.

The equities also weren’t able to close the week higher after a good run-up in the early part of the week.

So overall picture is a bit clouded for me for the third week in a row. There are really no high percentage plays to consider.

My trading contest is going quite well, i’m third in the rankings and have been holding steady in the top 4 since the beginning of the contest.

Bullish engulfing patterns on AUD, NZD, and CAD probably mean higher prices ahead, but at this time I have no clear ideas for next week. I might probe the short side of GBP/USD given that it closed the week at its lows.

Stocks made an impressive rally, but as I mentioned in my Thursday’s post, the bullish percent indices are not reacting properly, so this could be a headfake.

I’m currently ranked third in Alpari’s “Jackpot” contest. you can check it out here

http://www.alpari-forex.com/en/contest/real_classic_rating/

“alchemist” is my contest id

SPXA200R and SPXA50R made nice moves higher, VIX has been going down, and carry trade currencies are currently showing bullish engulfing patterns on the weekly charts. All these reasons point to higher equity prices in the near-term, but watch the BPSPX, it needs to turn up for the rally to be sustainable.

http://www.alpari.ru/ru/contest/real_classic_rating/

my contest id is “alchemist”, currently I’m in the 4th place. Unfortunately, due to not being familiar with the new trading platform I made two mechanical mistakes, which didn’t affect the return from the trade, but affected the way RISK is calculated for contest purposes. Since the winner of the contest is measured on risk-adjusted basis, these mechanical mistakes will show that I used more leverage than I actually did. Nonetheless, I will be going forward with my participation in the contest and hope to place as high as possible. Will keep you updated.

I made six trades netting me 245 pips. In total my net profit for the week was 90%. I withdrew all profits out of the trading account.

The most interesting observation from the past week was the strength of the Euro, CHF, and GBP coupled with extreme weakness in the Aussie, Loonie and Kiwi. It’s possible that results of the G20 meeting were interpreted by the markets as signs of deflation coming upon us in the nearest future as governments embraced fiscal restraint.

I don’t put much emphasis into fundamental issues as my trading is very short-term oriented, but from the looks of weekly candles I will be inclined to look for long opportunities in Euro and cable next week, and try to sell strength in carry trade currencies.